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After youve taken in the monstrosity that is the resulting jpg, note that your chances of winning the match are: 0.5 * a * d + 0.5 * a * (1 d) * c + 0.5 * (1 a) * c * d + 0.5 * b * d + 0.5 * b * (1 d) * c + (1 b) * c * d and your chances of losing are: 0.5 * (1 a) * (1 c) + 0.5 * 1 a * c * (1 d) + 0.5 * a * (1 d) * (1 c) + 0.5 * b * (1 d) * (1 c) + 0.5 * (1 b) * (1 c) + 0.5 * (1 b) * c * (1 d) Now, the skilly thing here is that if you have a 50-50 win / loss ratio at a point (lets say for a, so a = 50% or 0.5) then 1 0.5 = 0.5, and we see that the chances of winning and losing are equal (when a = b = d = c = 0.5)